Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday is Less than Decisive

Right now (just at 10 pm), Obama is scorching with Delaware, Illinois, Georgia, Alabama, Minnesota, North Dakota, Idaho, and Kansas.

Clinton has Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts.

With Missouri (haven't counted St. Louis) and Connecticut (Obama with slim lead with 64% reporting) up for grabs, though they probably will split them.

California, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, and Utah on the way.

Delegate math is tricky. Momentum coming out of Super Tuesday is key.

California will figure prominently in both of these equations. We'll see what happens.

Networks are suggesting Obama is doing better than expected on delegate count, but will his momentum coming into today be sustained?

Clinton is winning big states, but her record in the South and other so-called red states is marginal at best.

Are we looking at the dream ticket?

Both are promising an end to the war, universal health care, workers' rights, real economic stimulus, green energy, and more.

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Anonymous said...

So (at the time you wrote this) Obama "is scorching" with 128 delegates, while Clinton merely "has" 147 delegates?

Why did you write it like that?

Joel said...

Estimates of delegate counts are pretty inaccurate as I have seen about a dozen different types of counts on them all night – none of them the same.

Imagine if the networks reported all the states Obama won before the California polls had closed... Instead of insisting that Clinton's 6 states were the total bomb...

I have followed this all night and they delayed calling Obama state well past the time they clearly fell for Obama.

So it goes on... More ratings for Wold Blitzer and Chris Matthews, I guess.

Anonymous said...

Why did you write it like that?

Joel said...

To "anonymous":

Sometimes when you're hot, you're on fire. You're scorching. It's a metaphor for momentum – the kind of momentum needed to win an election against entrenched interests. No matter how much the networks downplay it. Take care.