by John Wojcik
This post considers only the narrow issue of who is going to get the Democratic nomination. It does not pretend to be balanced. It is, however, absolutely certain, scientific, factual and free of any wishful or subjective thinking whatsoever!
Wisconsin was Hillary Clinton’s Waterloo, no ifs ands or buts about it.
Barack Obama is the frontrunner, unequivocally.
He is only ONE MORE VICTORY AWAY from clinching the deal.
A victory in EITHER Ohio or Texas will more likely than not force Clinton out of the race.
A victory in both will absolutely force her out.
These conclusions are supported by the following facts:
Obama is on an incredible winning streak, as we know – ten to nothing since Super Tuesday. All of the victories were huge blow outs.
The Wisconsin victory by 17 points was actually his poorest showing since Super Tuesday. With poor showings like that, who needs strong ones?
He’s gone from a narrow pledged delegate lead and overall delegate deficit on Feb. 6 to what is unarguably an insurmountable 150 plus pledged delegate lead.
If you factor in the superdelegates, he’s still ahead by 80.
All signs point to the superdelegate gap closing perhaps as early as the end of next week. By March 4 he is likely to gain 25 or more superdelegates. (This is a reasonable, conservative estimate.)
We can expect that Clinton will pick up almost no super delegates between now and March 4 and that some of the ones she now has may also switch to Obama.
The only thing that could propel Clinton to the nomination is if Obama makes a bunch of mistakes or some huge mistake that makes him unelectable. While this is theoretically possible it is scientifically unlikely.
A sustained negative campaign by Clinton is a possibility but will not amount to a winning strategy for Clinton. Clinton cannot damage Obama to the extent that she would have to without damaging herself politically, in the Senate and for the future. She is not suicidal.
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