Greetings from France; Again.
To correct a previous transmission. The national elections are on May 6th.
The Parliamentary elections are JUNE, 2007.
The municipal elections are in 2008.
This is important since Francois Bayrou, who got about 18 percent of the first vote wants to dominate the Parliamentary elections; then the municipal elections; and then; 4 years later; run for president again.
One theory for why the election between Nicholas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal has narrowed to an almost draw is that Bayrou would sooner see Royal win than Sarkozy. Why
Royal would be easier to beat in 2012
This reasoning would mean that Bayrou s votes would largley go to Royal.
On the far right; fascist side.....the reasoning is that Le Pen s 11 percent may not vote for Sarkowy; that the far right voters who are willing to compromist, may already done so in the first round.
These fascists elements might cast a white ballot; meaning they formally oppose both candidates.
That might also happen with left voters who are angry that Royal would just be another Mitterand.
Debating these points is taking place all across France.
In Sete, a once left brimmiong large sea port town, the debate was great. That town; like its neighbor, Marseille; is moving to the right as its working class is unemployed due to harbor closures. Our discussions there were very revealing.
Tomorrow is MAY DAY. France is one of the last countries in the world to celebrate MAY DAY with full national shut downs and a march. The size of the May Day activities could go a long way in determining the elections results.
Clinton and Royal; Sarkozy and Bush
There are similarities between Hillary qnd Segolene. Both have strong successful husbands in politics; and both woman are also successful in politics. Neither one has lost and election.
And both Woman are from the right of center parts of their party.
It is hard to believe that Sarkozy is an open supporter of George Bush, but, in recent days he has had to stop that angle.
The debate Wed Nite
The issues should arrive on the scene at the debate. Sarkozy is openly calling for cutbacks in national education jobs; privatizing the health system that the World Health Org labelled No 1; dumping the 35 hour work week; cutting back the right to strike, and the rest. Royal is largley for the status quo.
Sete and now Paris