These results are compiled after MoveOn.org's first "virtual town hall," a nationwide online discussion with 7 Democratic candidates (apparently the Republicans who were invited declined to participate).
The topic of the forum was Iraq. The first batch of numbers are the total votes submitted by all MoveOn members. The second batch were submitted only by people who signed up to participate in the forum. Which means that activist liberal voters who heard Edwards and Richardson and Obama generally liked what they heard. And liberal, activist people who actually heard Clinton talk about her positions on Iraq and the issue of timetables, appear to be less supportive than those who did not. (Though at the large meeting I attended, only Clinton and Kucinich received any applause.)
Sen. Barack Obama: 28% www.BarackObama.com
Sen. John Edwards: 25%
Rep. Dennis Kucinich: 17%
Gov. Bill Richardson: 12%
Sen. Hillary Clinton: 11%
Sen. Joe Biden: 6%
Sen. Chris Dodd: 1%
Sen. John Edwards: 25%
Gov. Bill Richardson: 21%
Sen. Barack Obama: 19%
Rep. Dennis Kucinich: 15%
Sen. Joe Biden: 10%
Sen. Hillary Clinton: 7%
Sen. Chris Dodd: 4%
Analysis: My theory is that Clinton's low numbers in this poll indicate her strength as a candidate. Unlike others, she does not feel that she has to do well among the MoveOn crowd, which is perceived as a largely liberal section of Democratic voters. In fact, in her view, a low score here allows her to show centrist voters that she appeals more broadly. And liberal voters will, in the end, poll the lever for her.
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4 comments:
Are you saying Hillary is a smart candidate or that she is calculating?
I think Sen. Obama gave the best presentation, sounded the clearest and most capable, and can win the widest majority.
I think your theory is correct but Clinton has miscalulated the amount of the anti-war sentiments held by the center and will not get the nomination unless she changes her tune.
I think the majority of people left, right, and center favor ending the war and believe Bush is a bungler, but I don't think Hill has miscalculated the thinness of antiwar sentiment. About half of people want Bush to sign the supplemental spending bill with a timetable for withdrawal, but about the same number have a negative view of timetables. (see: http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm) Obviously large portions of the population are easily swayed, which supports the campaign tactics Hill has undertaken -- to a certain extent. Though I agree, she will likely have to become a more staunch antiwar candidate as the campaign wears on and weariness over the war grows.
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