Saturday, May 31, 2008

Results of DNC-RBC Cmte.

The Democratic National Committee's Rules and By-laws Committee, after vigorous debate, basically voted to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations with 1/2 vote per delegate (pledged and super).

According to the findings, Clinton will gain 87 pledged delegates and Obama will gain 63 and Edwards will gain 6.5 (from Florida). If one assumes Edwards' delegates will shift to Obama based on Edwards' endorsement of Obama, Obama will gain a total of 69.5, not including the handful of super delegate from each state that have already endorsed him but had also been excluded from the total.

Before the new math on MI and FL, Obama had 1985 total delegates with 2026 needed to win. After the new math, something like 2105 delegates will be needed to win. Today's events give Obama just under 2055, meaning that he will carry the nomination by Tuesday's contest in Montana and South Dakota with an assist from Puerto Rico – even without securing another superdelegate endorsement before then.

I suspect the Obama campaign prefers to win the nomination as a result of an electoral contest rather than on a superdelegate's endorsement. So look forward to an awesome speech Tuesday night!

Interestingly the vote to seat the Michigan delegation, perhaps the most contentious challenge of the two as Obama's name wasn't on the ballot there and which was pushed by the Clinton campaign, won 19-8 with no abstentions out of 30.

The Clinton campaign sought to block the motion to seat the Michigan delegate, ironically, because it wanted to have the delegates given their full vote at the convention. But only 8 Clinton supporters voted that way, meaning that 5 Clinton endorsers sought to avoid a divisive and contentious outcome.

Only 8 members of the committee have endorsed Obama.

Another point of information: the proposal to seat the Michigan delegation with one-half vote each came from a joint proposal made by both Obama and Clinton supporters in the Michigan Democratic Party.

Despite the heated contest over the past year or so, the Michigan Democratic Party showed maturity and a strong inclination to unite around the nominee and the campaign to defeat John McCain in the fall.

But the process of the Democratic Party and heated discussions should not obscure the fact that this week, Barack Obama is going to win the nomination of the Democratic Party. It is an historic moment in our country's life, and the beginning of a new journey toward victory for the people and the working class in November.

[Update 1] Huffington Post has a similar total count with even fuzzier math, but you get the point.

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