The Democratic National Committee's Rules and By-laws Committee, after vigorous debate, basically voted to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations with 1/2 vote per delegate (pledged and super).
According to the findings, Clinton will gain 87 pledged delegates and Obama will gain 63 and Edwards will gain 6.5 (from Florida). If one assumes Edwards' delegates will shift to Obama based on Edwards' endorsement of Obama, Obama will gain a total of 69.5, not including the handful of super delegate from each state that have already endorsed him but had also been excluded from the total.
Before the new math on MI and FL, Obama had 1985 total delegates with 2026 needed to win. After the new math, something like 2105 delegates will be needed to win. Today's events give Obama just under 2055, meaning that he will carry the nomination by Tuesday's contest in Montana and South Dakota with an assist from Puerto Rico – even without securing another superdelegate endorsement before then.
I suspect the Obama campaign prefers to win the nomination as a result of an electoral contest rather than on a superdelegate's endorsement. So look forward to an awesome speech Tuesday night!
Interestingly the vote to seat the Michigan delegation, perhaps the most contentious challenge of the two as Obama's name wasn't on the ballot there and which was pushed by the Clinton campaign, won 19-8 with no abstentions out of 30.
The Clinton campaign sought to block the motion to seat the Michigan delegate, ironically, because it wanted to have the delegates given their full vote at the convention. But only 8 Clinton supporters voted that way, meaning that 5 Clinton endorsers sought to avoid a divisive and contentious outcome.
Only 8 members of the committee have endorsed Obama.
Another point of information: the proposal to seat the Michigan delegation with one-half vote each came from a joint proposal made by both Obama and Clinton supporters in the Michigan Democratic Party.
Despite the heated contest over the past year or so, the Michigan Democratic Party showed maturity and a strong inclination to unite around the nominee and the campaign to defeat John McCain in the fall.
But the process of the Democratic Party and heated discussions should not obscure the fact that this week, Barack Obama is going to win the nomination of the Democratic Party. It is an historic moment in our country's life, and the beginning of a new journey toward victory for the people and the working class in November.
[Update 1] Huffington Post has a similar total count with even fuzzier math, but you get the point.
The opinions, views, thoughts, and ramblings of editors of PoliticalAffairs.net – and other stuff worth reading or viewing.
Showing posts with label nomination. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nomination. Show all posts
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Clinton, Obama: Who Wins, Who Loses?
By Joe Sims
This has been such an incredible election, a delightfully rich laboratory of the dialectics of real life. It has caused everyone, politicians, pundits, pollsters, political pros, (and not a few pompous prudes) to look again and again at everything in a new light. Once you think you figured it out, something goes boom! And it’s changed again causing consternation in some, palpitations in others, and among many much delight.
Well folks, it’s changed again. A few weeks ago, the spin on the Democratic campaign was that even if Senator Obama of Illinois wins, he loses. This, due to the mainstream press’s attempt to paint him as the "Black" candidate. Near universal African American support, it was argued (and hoped) would narrow his support, warding off the growing coalescence of a multi-class, multi-racial anti-right wing coalition. Obama’s winning of the South Carolina campaign in particular, would precipitate his losing elsewhere. Well, the opposite happened. Due to the ugly hard ball politics and the injection of hate into the campaign beginning in New Hampshire, voter disgust with such tactics turned everything on its head and groundswell of support buoyed the hopes of the Illinois freshman with 11 straight victories.
Now on the morning of the March 4th primaries, things have changed so much that the Obama campaign is able to argue that even if he loses, he still wins. A campaign memo issued yesterday, suggested that Senator Obama’s lead in delegates is so great that his New York rival, Senator Clinton unless she wins a landslide victory in Texas and Ohio, cannot possibly catch up. The Obama camp is now contending there is no credible path for the Clinton campaign to clinch the nomination.
The Clinton’s however, may not be interested in a "credible path" given the renewed negative tactics utilized by their camp in the last two weeks. Judging by the headlines in this morning’s papers, the ruling class mass media, may not be interested in credible path either. A week ago the conventional wisdom was that Mrs. Clinton needed big victories in Ohio and Texas to sustain her campaign. However, in the small hours, something shifted. Now, a number of papers are arguing that a victory, even a small one, in either Ohio or Texas will "lift " her campaign to new heights. Momentum, according to other headlines is now hers.
Can you imagine such a scenario occurring if Obama has lost 11 straight times by margins of 20 percent or more?
No matter. Today’s election is in the hands of the working class and people of Ohio, Texas, New Hampshire and Vermont. By the way, they are Black, Brown, Asian and white (All that "blue collar white voter" nonsense in the press is driving me crazy. In all of these states, high turnouts bode well for a continuation of the recent weeks trends.
ps
In Ohio, from where I stopped for a few days over the weekend, the election began last week with huge crowds voting early. In Youngstown, campaign committees from both the peace movement and Obama campaigns knocked twice on the door to insure that early voting occurred. Senator Clinton effort consisted in one robo-call that prevented one from hanging up until the message was finished. The Youngstown Vindicator’s (a conservative rag) Sunday front page headline rang: "Working C lass will Determine Victory." The Vindicator? Things sure are changing in America.
[Subscribe to the People's Weekly World]
This has been such an incredible election, a delightfully rich laboratory of the dialectics of real life. It has caused everyone, politicians, pundits, pollsters, political pros, (and not a few pompous prudes) to look again and again at everything in a new light. Once you think you figured it out, something goes boom! And it’s changed again causing consternation in some, palpitations in others, and among many much delight.
Well folks, it’s changed again. A few weeks ago, the spin on the Democratic campaign was that even if Senator Obama of Illinois wins, he loses. This, due to the mainstream press’s attempt to paint him as the "Black" candidate. Near universal African American support, it was argued (and hoped) would narrow his support, warding off the growing coalescence of a multi-class, multi-racial anti-right wing coalition. Obama’s winning of the South Carolina campaign in particular, would precipitate his losing elsewhere. Well, the opposite happened. Due to the ugly hard ball politics and the injection of hate into the campaign beginning in New Hampshire, voter disgust with such tactics turned everything on its head and groundswell of support buoyed the hopes of the Illinois freshman with 11 straight victories.
Now on the morning of the March 4th primaries, things have changed so much that the Obama campaign is able to argue that even if he loses, he still wins. A campaign memo issued yesterday, suggested that Senator Obama’s lead in delegates is so great that his New York rival, Senator Clinton unless she wins a landslide victory in Texas and Ohio, cannot possibly catch up. The Obama camp is now contending there is no credible path for the Clinton campaign to clinch the nomination.
The Clinton’s however, may not be interested in a "credible path" given the renewed negative tactics utilized by their camp in the last two weeks. Judging by the headlines in this morning’s papers, the ruling class mass media, may not be interested in credible path either. A week ago the conventional wisdom was that Mrs. Clinton needed big victories in Ohio and Texas to sustain her campaign. However, in the small hours, something shifted. Now, a number of papers are arguing that a victory, even a small one, in either Ohio or Texas will "lift " her campaign to new heights. Momentum, according to other headlines is now hers.
Can you imagine such a scenario occurring if Obama has lost 11 straight times by margins of 20 percent or more?
No matter. Today’s election is in the hands of the working class and people of Ohio, Texas, New Hampshire and Vermont. By the way, they are Black, Brown, Asian and white (All that "blue collar white voter" nonsense in the press is driving me crazy. In all of these states, high turnouts bode well for a continuation of the recent weeks trends.
ps
In Ohio, from where I stopped for a few days over the weekend, the election began last week with huge crowds voting early. In Youngstown, campaign committees from both the peace movement and Obama campaigns knocked twice on the door to insure that early voting occurred. Senator Clinton effort consisted in one robo-call that prevented one from hanging up until the message was finished. The Youngstown Vindicator’s (a conservative rag) Sunday front page headline rang: "Working C lass will Determine Victory." The Vindicator? Things sure are changing in America.
[Subscribe to the People's Weekly World]
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)