Results of DNC-RBC Cmte.

The Democratic National Committee's Rules and By-laws Committee, after vigorous debate, basically voted to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations with 1/2 vote per delegate (pledged and super).

According to the findings, Clinton will gain 87 pledged delegates and Obama will gain 63 and Edwards will gain 6.5 (from Florida). If one assumes Edwards' delegates will shift to Obama based on Edwards' endorsement of Obama, Obama will gain a total of 69.5, not including the handful of super delegate from each state that have already endorsed him but had also been excluded from the total.

Before the new math on MI and FL, Obama had 1985 total delegates with 2026 needed to win. After the new math, something like 2105 delegates will be needed to win. Today's events give Obama just under 2055, meaning that he will carry the nomination by Tuesday's contest in Montana and South Dakota with an assist from Puerto Rico – even without securing another superdelegate endorsement before then.

I suspect the Obama campaign prefers to win the nomination as a result of an electoral contest rather than on a superdelegate's endorsement. So look forward to an awesome speech Tuesday night!

Interestingly the vote to seat the Michigan delegation, perhaps the most contentious challenge of the two as Obama's name wasn't on the ballot there and which was pushed by the Clinton campaign, won 19-8 with no abstentions out of 30.

The Clinton campaign sought to block the motion to seat the Michigan delegate, ironically, because it wanted to have the delegates given their full vote at the convention. But only 8 Clinton supporters voted that way, meaning that 5 Clinton endorsers sought to avoid a divisive and contentious outcome.

Only 8 members of the committee have endorsed Obama.

Another point of information: the proposal to seat the Michigan delegation with one-half vote each came from a joint proposal made by both Obama and Clinton supporters in the Michigan Democratic Party.

Despite the heated contest over the past year or so, the Michigan Democratic Party showed maturity and a strong inclination to unite around the nominee and the campaign to defeat John McCain in the fall.

But the process of the Democratic Party and heated discussions should not obscure the fact that this week, Barack Obama is going to win the nomination of the Democratic Party. It is an historic moment in our country's life, and the beginning of a new journey toward victory for the people and the working class in November.

[Update 1] Huffington Post has a similar total count with even fuzzier math, but you get the point.

It's Over

by Norman Markowitz

John Edwards is about to endorse Barack Obama for President. Edwards will release his pledged delegates, who presently number 18. Although they don't have to vote for Obama, most are expected to. But Edwards endorsement should really end the contest.

It should convince Hillary Clinton that she cannot win the nomination whatever happens in the remaining primaries; whatever settlement is made over Michigan and Florida. Although the estimates vary, the well respected McClatchy News Service sees Obama needing around 150 delegates before the Edwards endorsement and Clinton 313 delegates after her West Virginia victory. Edwards endorsement will add delegates to Obama's column directly. The remaining primaries will not significantly enable Clinton to cut into Obama's delegate lead (his lead may even widen).

Edwards endorsement should (and probably will) encourage senior party Super Delegates to follow George McGovern and endorse Obama now. Obama may have the necessary majority weeks before the convention. He will inevitably have it at the convention.

As someone who has little sympathy for Clinton's campaign or her larger role in politics, all that I can say is that she should withdraw for herself, for her political future if she wants one. As of now, the more she hurts Obama, the more she hurts herself. It is in her interest to withdraw as graciously as possible and support the national ticket as fully as possible. Even a politician with no real interest in anything beyond self advancement would do that at this point. Richard Nixon might not, but I don't think that Hillary Clinton is the type to make a "You Won't have Clinton to Kick Around Anymore" farewell address to the
press.

Iowa Leans Left

By Joel Wendland

The results of the Democratic Party's caucus in Iowa are:

Senator Barack Obama : 37.57%
Senator John Edwards : 29.76%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.46%

with about 3.5% going to the rest.

What this all means at this point is pure speculation. I think it is fair to say that this has become a three person race. Sen. Clinton's financial backers were reportedly worried about this outcome, according to the New York Times, but she has a long way to go before she can be counted out.

Edwards is going to have to win soon to keep going, as he doesn't have the resources to continue to come in second or third. He may also have to work on broadening his appeal.

Sen. Obama can lock things up with a couple of swift victories in New Hampshire and overcoming strong odds in Nevada and South Carolina. (Michigan's primary on Jan. 15th really doesn't count as the Democratic Party isn't recognizing it and Sen. Clinton is the only competitive candidate on the ballot.)

But the big story of the night isn't the numbers, the dollars, or the candidates. It is the sheer numbers of people who turned out for this grueling caucus process. TV people are saying 236,000 people participated in the Democratic Party caucuses: about double that of the Republican Party caucus and well more than the 125,000 people who turned out for the Democrats in 2004.

In droves Iowans, who by a slim majority voted for Bush in 2004, are demanding a new direction in US politics and society. I think they want the war to end, they want universal health care, a serious focus on workers issues (good-paying jobs and rights), they want to mobilize our resources to tackle global warming, and they want a break with failed ultra right policies advanced by the Bush administration.

Richardson Said to be Urging Supporters to Back Obama in Iowa

The Iowa Independent is reporting that Gov. Bill Richardson's supporters are being urged to throw their support behind Sen. Barack Obama in precincts in which Gov. Richardson is not viable.

If this turns out to be the case, this means both Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Richardson (who are polling about 10% or 11% combined) are pushing for an Obama victory in the event they do not win.

John Edwards was expected to have an advantage in Iowa as he appeared to have a significant lead in polls that recorded voters' second choice for the caucus. But if both Richardson and Kucinich are able to convince their caucus supporters to back Obama, the junior Senator from Illinois could pull out a significant victory tonight.